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Variables Examined in Relation to Hunting
License Sales Increases and
Decreases
Only 2 of the
43 variables examined in a study conducted by Responsive
Management in 2008 showed a statistically significant negative
correlation with hunting license sales.
Just as
important as significance in this study is non-significance:
Of the nine economic variables examined, all but one
had no statistically significant correlation to
hunting license sales. This indicates that something unique to
the lone statistically significant economic
variable (housing starts) must be behind the
correlation, as opposed to more general effects of the
economic downturn.
All of the variables examined in the
study are listed below. Those that showed a statistically
significant negative correlation with hunting license sales
are highlighted.
Consumer prices
Consumer price index
Dow Jones Industrial Averages
Housing
Median Income
NASDAQ year averages
New housing starts
Producer prices
Standard & Poor year averages
The New York Stock Exchange
Total density of housing per square mile
Total densitiy of hunters per square mile
Total density of people per square mile
Total precipitation
American Indian and Alaskan Natives populations
Asian/Pacific Islander population
Average monthly temperature
Changes in Black population
Changes in White population
Female population
General population
Hispanic population
Non-Hispanic population
Square miles
Population ages 0 to 4
Population ages 5 to 9
Population ages 10 to 14
Population ages 15 to 19
Population ages 20 to 24
Population ages 25 to 29
Population ages 30 to 34
Population 35 to 39
Population ages 40 to 44
Population ages 45 to 49
Population ages 50 to 54
Population ages 55 to 59
Population ages 60 to 64
Population ages 65 to 69
Population ages 70 to 74
Population ages 75 to 79
Population ages 80 to 84
Population ages 85 and above
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 RECENT NEWS REPORTS
have stated that, despite the poor economy,
participation in hunting and fishing is on the rise.
However, a study conducted in 2008 by Responsive
Management suggests that participation is increasing
because of the economic downturn, not in spite
of it.
Although many factors can
affect license sales, in states that have experienced an
increase some officials and sportsmen think that the
economic slump is the reason (2, 4, 5). A recent report
by the Recreational Boating and Fishing Foundation
(RBFF) and the American Sportfishing Association (ASA)
states that fishing participation, as measured by
license sales, increased in 2009 when compared to 2008.
As part of a new quarterly fishing license
national sales index published monthly by the RBFF and
ASA, Southwick Associates, which analyzed the data,
found a 7.7% increase in the number of licenses sold
year-to-date as of September 1, 2009, compared to the
same time period in 2008. RBFF President and CEO Frank
Peterson said that the reasons for the increase range
from "a slow economy, which may allow people more time
to engage in outdoor activities, to recreational fishing
being a lower cost alternative to other forms of
recreation" (1,
6). |
There is statistical
support for this view. In 2008, Responsive Management
and the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, under a
Hunting Heritage Partnership grant from the National
Shooting Sports Foundation, conducted a two-phase study
to identify and explore in detail the factors behind
three discrete increases in hunting license sales over
the past two decades (8). After reaching a peak in 1982,
sales of hunting licenses across the United States
declined steadily, according to U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service Federal Aid data. However, since 1990 there have
been three notable exceptions to this overall national
decline, in 1992, 1999, and 2004.
 To attempt to determine the cause
of these increases, Responsive Management analyzed
potential internal and external factors that might have
affected hunting license sales. The analysis was run on
each of the 50 states individually, as well as on the
nation as a whole. A total of 43 external variables
were examined, including average monthly temperature,
consumer prices, Dow Jones Industrial Averages, median
income, new housing starts, housing and population
densities, and population by age
groups.
Of
the 43 variables analyzed, there were only two
statistically significant factors that were negatively
associated with hunting license sales on the national
level: the percentage of the population between the ages
of 65 and 69, and increases in new housing starts. In
other words, (a) the greater the proportion of the
population between the ages of 65 and 69, the more
likely it is that there will be a decline in hunting
license sales; and (b) the higher the rate of housing
starts, the more likely it is that there will be a
decline in hunting license sales.
The
age factor is easily explained: as people age, they are
less likely to participate in hunting or have a need to
purchase a license; the decline in hunting with
increasing age has been documented in numerous
participation studies. The significance of the
housing starts factor is not so clear; the data simply
show that hunting license sales have declined in times
of rapid growth in housing
starts. |
One reason might be
the number of hunters who work in construction and
related trades. In a 2007 nationwide survey of hunters
conducted by Responsive Management and the National
Shooting Sports Foundation (9), the top occupational
category for employed hunters was "construction /
carpentry / plumbing / electrical / craftsman," a
category that strongly relates to the work required for
new housing construction. Thus, in times of increased
housing starts, it may be that a substantial number of
hunters will have less free time to go hunting as they
devote more time to work.
 In addition, "work obligations" is
one of the most common reasons cited by hunters for not
hunting or not hunting more often. In two separate
surveys of active and inactive hunters conducted in 1995
by Responsive Management (7) and in 2008 by Responsive
Management and the National Shooting Sports Foundation
(10), "work obligations" was among the top reasons that
took away from hunters' enjoyment of hunting or caused
them not to hunt.
The housing starts
finding in the Responsive Management study has been
discussed in several newspaper articles and columns over
the past year (2, 4, 5, 11) and has been cited by at
least one state official regarding recent license sales
increases (2). However, one question remains: In hard
economic times, in addition to having more time to hunt
in general, do hunters increasingly turn to hunting to
put food on the table? Some hunters who have been
interviewed indicate that this is a motivating factor
for them, and others say it is not (3, 11). More
research is needed to explore this hypothesis. None of
the other economic indicators in the 2008 Responsive
Management study showed a significant correlation to
hunting license sales, which could suggest that the
increase in license sales is related to time available
to hunt rather than to economic reasons such as hunting
for meat.
A printable version of this article is available here (1.25MB
PDF). |
Sources
(1)
American Sportfishing Association. (2009, October 20).
Despite economy, fishing license sales up [News
release]. Available here.
(2) Brettman, A.
(2009, October 3). 'Three ring circus' of hunters greets
Oregon rifle deer season's opening day. The
Oregonian. Available here.
(3) Extreme
savers: Rich Hearn: Chopping wood for warmth (2009,
November 4). CNNMoney.com. Available here.
(4) Frye,
B. (2008, October 19). Economy puts more hunters in the
woods. Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Available here.
(5) Furse,
J. (2008, September 14). No luck hunting for job? Try
deer. New York Daily News. Available here.
(6) Recreational
Boating and Fishing Foundation (2009, October 20).
Despite economy, fishing license sales up 8 percent
[News release]. Available here.
(7)
Responsive Management (1995). Factors related to
hunting and fishing in the United States. Phase V: Final
report. Available here.
(8) Responsive
Management (2008). Increasing hunting participation
by investigating factors related to hunting license
sales increases in 1992, 1999, and 2004 against 13 other
years of hunting license sales decline between
1990-2005. Available here.
(9) Responsive
Management/National Shooting Sports Foundation (2007).
Unpublished data from nationwide telephone survey of
hunters. On file with author.
(10)
Responsive Management/National Shooting Sports
Foundation. (2008). The future of hunting and the
shootings sports: Research-based recruitment and
retention strategies. Available here.
(11) Wilson, M.
(2009, October 3). Recession's effect on hunting hard to
pin down. The Oregonian. Available here. |
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PHOTOS: TEDDY ROOSEVELT CONSERVATION PARTNERSHIP; KENDALL VAN DYK; RESPONSIVE
MANAGEMENT.
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Management 130 Franklin Street |
Harrisonburg, Virginia 22801
540-432-1888
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